A Researcher in an Ivory Tower

According to news reports, Academia Sinica Associate Research Fellow Ma Tzu-heng published a research report on May 12 claiming that the blank-ballot movement should have affected the middle class. However, in the recent presidential election, the blank-ballot rate was low in urban areas where the middle class is concentrated, while it was unexpectedly high in remote areas. He asserted that unless there was vote-rigging, there is no reasonable explanation, etc.

The author began participating in the ballot-recount work on May 10, responsible for Taipei County at Pan-Chiao Elementary School. On May 10, the recount covered ballots from Taishan, Tucheng, and Ruifang; on May 11, it covered Sanxia, Wugu, Shulin, and Ruifang. Admittedly, as Ma Tzu-heng stated, the blank-ballot rate was higher in remote areas on the first and second days, and lower in Yungho on the third day. However, it was simultaneously discovered that invalid ballots resulting from marking outside the designated voting circle—such as in the candidate number field or photo field—were significantly higher for the Ch'en-Lu ticket than for the Lien-Soong ticket in remote areas. In other words, due to the legislative amendment to the Presidential and Vice Presidential Election and Recall Act at the end of last year, ballots that were previously valid became invalid. In this general election, the votes lost by Ch'en and Lu in remote areas far exceeded those lost by Lien and Soong.

Several consecutive days of ballot-recount experience have led to a deeper understanding of the urban-rural divide in Taiwan. In more remote townships and towns, voters' behavioral patterns in marking ballots are less regular, with lower meticulousness and precision, making these ballots more easily classified as invalid. Conversely, in urban areas, both meticulousness and precision are higher. During the recount, whether for Ch'en-Lu or Lien-Soong, ballots could frequently be seen with stamps placed squarely in the center of the voting circle, forming neat stacks. Even the proportion of errors made by poll workers in determining valid and invalid ballots showed an urban-rural divide, being relatively higher in remote areas.

Regarding Mr. Ma Tzu-heng's research, my observations from actually participating in the recount over the past few days have naturally raised many questions. Has Mr. Ma previously conducted research on the ratio of blank ballots cast by voters in Taiwan's remote areas versus urban areas, or did he reference research by other scholars? How could Mr. Ma conclude that the higher rate of blank ballots in remote areas during this general election was an abnormal phenomenon? Furthermore, has Mr. Ma conducted research on whether the blank-ballot movement actually influenced voters' voting behavior? The author resides in the urban area of Taipei City, yet only a handful of family and friends knew about the blank-ballot movement. How can one assume that the blank-ballot movement had influence, and in turn deduce that the rate of blank ballots cast by voters in urban areas would be higher?

Moreover, since Mr. Ma has neither conducted field surveys of voters nor actually sampled and interviewed the litigation agents from both the Blue and Green camps who participated in this recount, it is evident that he may not fully understand the patterns of blank ballots. How could he directly conclude that a high proportion of blank ballots in remote areas might be vote-rigging? In addition, Mr. Ma has not studied the number and proportion of blank ballots generated as a result of the amendment to the Presidential and Vice Presidential Election and Recall Act at the end of last year; how can he rashly issue inferences of vote-rigging?

The author believes that this ballot recount can indeed provide substantial research for voter voting behavior and election administration work. However, we expect scholars, when conducting research, to base their work on evidence, facts, and investigations, rather than on subjective perceptions of "I feel." Furthermore, we expect Taiwan's society, aside from "blue" and "green," to have professions across all trades that strictly uphold professional ethics and transcend political discourse.

※ Published in: Liberty Times